Old man on bike Jarod Carruthers/Flickr

Pequeños pasos para el crecimiento europeo

PARÍS – Los temas elegidos por el Banco Central Europeo para su foro anual en Sintra, Portugal, a fines de mayo no fueron la deflación, la expansión cuantitativa ni la estabilidad financiera, sino el desempleo, la productividad y las reformas en favor del crecimiento. El presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, explicó el porqué en su discurso inaugural: la zona del euro carece tanto de impulso para el crecimiento como de capacidad de recuperación frente a los choques negativos.

Indudablemente, Draghi está en lo cierto. La Comisión Europea actualmente espera que el crecimiento en la zona del euro llegue al 1,5 % en 2015 y al 1,9 % en 2016, Eso ciertamente se ve bien frente al virtual estancamiento de los últimos años, pero, dada la combinación de masivo apoyo monetario, la actual posición fiscal neutral, una pronunciada caída de los precios del petróleo y la depreciación del euro, es lo menos que podemos esperar y logrará que el PBI per cápita solo alcance su nivel de 2008. El hecho de que los líderes y expertos aclamen esta perspectiva más alentadora indica cuán bajo han caído nuestras expectativas.

Hasta hace poco, se podía culpar a la austeridad fiscal y a la crisis del euro por el mal desempeño económico, pero ya no. Si bien el crecimiento puede resultar superior al pronosticado por la Comisión, hay motivos para preocuparse por el potencial de crecimiento de la zona del euro.

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