Old man on bike Jarod Carruthers/Flickr

迈向经济增长的小步骤

巴黎—欧洲央行在其5月底举行的葡萄牙辛特拉(Sintra)年度论坛上没有选择通缩、量化宽松或金融稳定作为主题。论坛的主题是失业、生产率和促增长改革。欧洲央行行长德拉吉在引介讲话中解释了原因:欧元区既缺少增长动力,也缺少对消极冲击的恢复力。

德拉吉毫无疑问是正确的。如今,欧盟委员会预计2015年欧元区增长将达到1.5%,2016年将达到1.9%。与近几年近乎停滞的情况相比,这毫无疑问是好消息。但是,考虑到大规模货币支持、现在趋于中性的财政立场、油价暴跌和欧元贬值等因素的综合作用,这些增长数字实现的可能性很小,即使实现,也只能让人均GDP回到2008年水平。领导人呢和专家为这一稍显光明的前景欢呼雀跃,这一事实表明我们的预期已经到了多么低微的程度。

到目前为止,经济表现低迷可以归咎于财政紧缩和欧元危机。仅此而已。尽管增长可能超过欧盟委员会的预计,但有理由担心欧元区的增长潜力。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/aRhDj99/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.