Old man on bike Jarod Carruthers/Flickr

迈向经济增长的小步骤

巴黎—欧洲央行在其5月底举行的葡萄牙辛特拉(Sintra)年度论坛上没有选择通缩、量化宽松或金融稳定作为主题。论坛的主题是失业、生产率和促增长改革。欧洲央行行长德拉吉在引介讲话中解释了原因:欧元区既缺少增长动力,也缺少对消极冲击的恢复力。

德拉吉毫无疑问是正确的。如今,欧盟委员会预计2015年欧元区增长将达到1.5%,2016年将达到1.9%。与近几年近乎停滞的情况相比,这毫无疑问是好消息。但是,考虑到大规模货币支持、现在趋于中性的财政立场、油价暴跌和欧元贬值等因素的综合作用,这些增长数字实现的可能性很小,即使实现,也只能让人均GDP回到2008年水平。领导人呢和专家为这一稍显光明的前景欢呼雀跃,这一事实表明我们的预期已经到了多么低微的程度。

到目前为止,经济表现低迷可以归咎于财政紧缩和欧元危机。仅此而已。尽管增长可能超过欧盟委员会的预计,但有理由担心欧元区的增长潜力。

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