euro bills Kevin Harber/Flickr

Odpoutejme se od eura

SAINT-PIERRE-D’ENTREMONT, FRANCIE – Evropská měnová unie nikdy nebyla dobrý nápad. Vzpomínám si na své překvapení, když jsem si jako mladý odborný asistent uvědomil, že jsem proti Maastrichtské smlouvě. Tehdy jsem věřil – a stále věřím –, že evropská integrace je velmi dobrá věc. Učebnicová ekonomie, kterou jsem vyučoval, však ukazovala, jak škodlivá může být EMU při absenci evropské fiskální a politické unie.

Nic, co se od té doby stalo, mě nepřesvědčilo, že tato učebnicová ekonomie byla přehnaně pesimistická. Právě naopak: byla ještě příliš optimistická. Život je posetý banánovými slupkami, a když na jednu šlápnete, musíte být schopni se adaptovat. Ze samotné měnové unie se však vyklubala obrovská banánová slupka vyvolávající kapitálové toky, které zvedaly náklady na evropském okraji. A adaptace – tedy devalvace měny – nebyla možná.

Většina učebnic z té doby navíc opomíjela finanční sektor, čímž zároveň opomíjela skutečnost, že kapitálové toky na evropský okraj budou proudit přes banky, a že jakmile kapitál přestane proudit, zatíží bankovní krize veřejné finance v zemích na okraji EU. To dále podkopá účetní bilance bank a omezí tvorbu úvěrů – o této neblahé spirále suverénních bank jsme v posledních letech tolik slyšeli. A žádná učebnice nepředpovídala, že evropská spolupráce vnutí krizovým zemím procyklická úsporná opatření, čímž vzniknou deprese, které se v některých případech mohou měřit s krizemi z 30. let.

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