euro bills Kevin Harber/Flickr

摆脱欧元,继续前进

SAINT-PIERRE-D’ENTREMONT,法国—欧洲货币联盟从来不是个好主意。我还记得,当时身为年轻助理教授的我意识到自己反对马斯特里赫特条约时是多么震惊。当时的我相信欧洲一体化是一件非常美妙的事情——现在仍然如此。但我所教授的教科书经济学表明,如果没有欧洲财政和政治联盟,欧洲货币联盟将带来巨大的危害。

此后发生的所有事情让我觉得,教科书绝没有过度悲观。相反,教科书是过度乐观了。生活的道路上到处是香蕉皮,如果踩到,你需要有调整能力。但货币联盟本身就是一块巨大的香蕉皮,它所带来的资本流动推高了欧洲外围的成本。而调整——也就是货币贬值——已不再是一个选项。

此外,大部分当代教科书都忽视金融部门;因此也就忽视了一个事实:流向外围的资本流将通过银行引导,而当资本停止流动时,银行危机将掣肘外围成员国的公共财政。这反过来进一步削弱了银行资产负债表、制约了信用创造,形成了一个近几年来我们耳熟能详的主权-银行恶性循环。而没有一本教科书预见到欧洲合作会向危机国施加亲周期紧缩,制造出一场在一定程度上堪与20世纪30年代相提并论的萧条。

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