L'Europa si scontra con il debito

MONACO DI BAVIERA – Il primo ministro francese Manuel Valls e il suo omologo italiano Matteo Renzi hanno dichiarato – o, almeno, insinuato – che non rispetteranno il fiscal compact, cioè il patto di bilancio che tutti gli Stati membri dell'eurozona hanno sottoscritto nel 2012; quello che, invece, intendono fare è aumentare il debito. La loro presa di posizione evidenzia un difetto insito nella struttura dell'Unione monetaria europea, che i leader europei dovranno riconoscere e correggere prima che sia troppo tardi.

Il fiscal compact – o, formalmente, Trattato sulla stabilità, sul coordinamento e sulla governance nell'Unione economica e monetaria – è stato il compromesso raggiunto per convincere la Germania ad approvare il Meccanismo europeo di stabilità (Mes), essenzialmente un pacchetto di salvataggio collettivo. Il patto fissa un tetto massimo al deficit strutturale di bilancio e, per quei paesi con un rapporto tra debito e Pil superiore al 60%, stabilisce che esso debba essere ridotto ogni anno di un ventesimo della differenza tra il rapporto debito-Pil attuale e il rapporto debito-Pil obiettivo.

Tuttavia, secondo le previsioni, il rapporto debito-Pil della Francia dovrebbe salire fino al 96% entro la fine di quest'anno, dal 91% registrato nel 2012, mentre quello dell'Italia raggiungerà il 135%, da quota 127% nel 2012. L'effettivo abbandono del fiscal compact da parte di Valls e Renzi lascia intendere che questi valori continueranno ad aumentare nei prossimi anni.

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