Politics

L’Europa potrebbe perdere l’opportunità di un riallineamento politico

Aug 30, 2018 Jean Pisani-Ferry

PARIGI – "Ci sono due fazioni al momento in Europa. Una è guidata da Macron e sostiene la migrazione. L'altra è sostenuta da paesi che vogliono proteggere i loro confini ". È così che il primo ministro ungherese Viktor Orbán ha descritto il panorama politico europeo durante il suo incontro di agosto con il leader della Lega, Matteo Salvini, l'uomo forte del governo italiano. "Se vogliono vedermi come il loro principale avversario, hanno ragione", ha risposto subito il presidente francese Emmanuel Macron.

Sia Orbán che Macron sembrano pensare che l'elezione del Parlamento europeo nel 2019 determinerà un riallineamento politico. Ma sarà così? Gli elettori del continente dovranno scegliere tra una società chiusa e una società aperta? La risposta a questa domanda - che è fondamentale per il futuro dell'Europa e la fiducia dei suoi cittadini nella democrazia - è tutt'altro che certa.

Il panorama politico europeo offre una combinazione peculiare di idiosincrasia e comunanza. Da una parte, rappresenta la massima secondo cui "tutta la politica è locale": i partiti sono profondamente radicati nelle tradizioni nazionali e i raggruppamenti paneuropei sono solo federazioni sciolte e non influenti. D'altra parte, gli spillover politici sono forti e le ondate di cambiamento attraversano regolarmente le frontiere, raggiungendo l'intero continente.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to PS Digital

Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 16 Comments on this article

Chris Parry-Davies Oct 3, 2018

All this rather assumes the European Parliamentary elections are more than a tokenistic charade when this is precisely the problem.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Bernhard Kopp Sep 2, 2018

What is the EU and what does it want to become??? It is not going to be a 'European Federal State' with a central parliament and a central government. So, what-else ? As long as the EU politics do not want to address the basic objectives of the EU, as long will the dysfunctionalities of the existing institutions and processes continue and ultimately destroy the project of European unification. The nominations for and the elections to the so-called EU-parliament are a farce and an insult to the most basic understanding of parliamentary democracy, of representation, of legitimacy and of accountability. There is no such a thing as a common European public in 21 languages. Therefore, and for a broad range of historic and cultural reasons and experiences there is no common ground for a federal state.
- Henk Crop Sep 2, 2018
  
  Bernhard Kopp. In the EU we have to reduce ambition to what is feasable and usefull.
  The goal must not be an EU Cathedral, preaching values and centralizing as much as possible. But it must be a cooperation of sovereign members seeking synergy. And a small central office enhancing that and performing some central functions for the group.
  - Bernhard Kopp Sep 2, 2018
    
    We may not be far apart. But neither Macron, nor Merkel, nor anybody else suggests to reduce the EU concept as it exists. It is not about destroying the EU, it is about saving the idea by redesigning the EU to a confederation of sovereign nation states. Then, we do not need a EU-parliament with some 751 MEPs. We need a EU-Senate, a representation of states, with 2-3 senators from every state (which makes a max. of 81 senators for EU-27) and we need a constitutional order for its practical role and authorities for whatever EU-legislation we may want to have. So, we do need a constitutional order first to define function and role of institutions and processes. The primary legislative authority must remain with the national parliaments, which are the only sort of parliaments in which the people can have any confidence, and which can be representative for the electorate, democratically legitimate and accountable. As in any organisation, structure is 'everything'.
    - Henk Crop Sep 2, 2018
      
      Bernard. Netherlands PM Mark Rutte has held a speech pleading for a more pragmatic EU ( Underpromise and overdeliver: fulfilling the promise of Europe, Government of the Netherlands). He has, on this basis, also formed a Hanseatic Alliance of smaller EU members
      ( comprising 51 million people ).
      It are some small, promising, developments.
      
      However I think real change has to come from the memberstates.
      Preferably from outside experts.
      Brussel is incapable of producing fresh ideas, other than more EU.
      - jagjeet sinha Sep 3, 2018
        
        +1
        An Association of Smaller European Nations is perhaps the path.
        Once you have France n Germany - the Big Boys have agenda.
        Like China inside A.S.E.A.N in Asia - would change Asia's agenda.
        Like Russia inside European Union - would change EU agenda.
        Similarly, those within EU - "Big Boys" - have ulterior motives.
        The smaller European Nations perhaps just want peace n growth.
        The Dutch initiative - Hanseatic League like - needs support.
        An Association of South and East European Nations - is the way.
        Otherwise France n Germany will always distort n confront.
        Desire for world domination - is never far under the skin.
        Perhaps the Headquarters - "Singapore" - moved from Brussels.
        The Hague and Edinburgh perhaps the perfect choice.
        The future of Europe is safest with smaller European Nations.
        
        A new reply to this comment has been posted.
      A new reply to this comment has been posted.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Henk Crop Sep 1, 2018

The author has all kinds of contemplations about left and right, which do not clarify much.
The main issue is that politicians have trouble listening to the people and meet their demand. If they would just do that, left or right, they could know what they have to do.

The recent Eurobarometer, EU27 Priorities, (published in Politico) offers guidance, with a ranking of 10 issues:
1 and 3 : Fight terrorism / Immigration
2 and 4 : Youth unemployement / economy growth
5 climate change

Ad 1/3 : Around the EU a huge population explosion is taking place.
Just Africa will grow from 1250 to 2500 million people in the next 35 years.
This will lead to poverty and social conflicts, including terrorism.
The EU maintains a policy that admits refugees in unlimited numbers.
Also most EU countries have birthrates which are below the 2,1 child per woman to maintain a constant population.
Many of the refugees are Moslim and have trouble integrating in the West, or do not want to integrate at all.
The EU is following a policy that will ultimately destroy itself, economically, culturally and politically.
Most significant is that the people give this issue top priority in the EU 27 barometer, but our Elite, in Brussels and Berlin, refuses to act.
They are somehow tightly holding on to outdated laws, and unrealistic principles or Christian dogma's. ( The strange death of Europe, D. Murray, 2017 ).

Ad 2/4. The economic and unemployment problems have, to a considerable extend, been caused by the reckless implementation of the Euro. The EU was and is not integrated enough to be able to have a common curreny. The competitive level of France/Italy is too divergent from that of Germany/Netherlands. ( Eurotragedy, A. Mody, 2018 - The Euro, J.E. Stiglitz, 2018 )

Ad 5. This is getting plenty of attention.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Aug 31, 2018

Jean Pisani-Ferry says Emmanuel Macron and Hungary’s autocrat, Viktor Orban may be seeking to make an impact on the 2019 European Parliament election, hopping to “bring about a political realignment.” Which of the two antagonists will prevail? Macron embraces liberal values and seeks to reinvent the European Project, and he takes on the the populist, hard-right, anti-immigration parties led by Orban and Italy’s Matteo Salvini.
That European politics “has long been structured along a left-right divide” does not hold true due to polarisation and fragmentation of the political landscape across the Continent. In the past, since the Parliament held its first election in 1979, until 2014, the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the European Peoples’ Party (EPP) “jointly received between one-half and two-thirds of the vote (with the rest going to centrists, the Greens, the radical left, and, increasingly, a new breed of Euroskeptic parties).” The two mainstream parties “have governed Europe through a grand coalition of sorts.”
In recent years main centre-left parties of progressives and socialdemocrats across Europe had lost out to new forces of the left and right and sometimes the centre. The PES “has largely split between a (much weakened) moderate wing and a radical, partly anti-European tendency.” The centre-right EPP is a bloc that supports greater EU integration. It also includes the parties of Angela Merkel, Jean-Claude Juncker, and Orban’s Fidesz. The two EU leaders have been accused of sheltering the “nationalist, illiberal, anti-Muslim, and even anti-Semitic” Orban.
In order to prevent populists from completing their power grab in the EU and disrupting the European project, liberals, democratic-minded of the left and right across Europe need to get their act together. In the elections of 2014, populists made gains. Next year, they will seek to dominate. The author says, “Orban now claims that he is the true heir of Helmut Kohl and represents the core of the EPP,” seeking to take “the party back to its Christian roots.”
Although the EPP holds 217 of the 751 seats, it “will go to the election as an odd coalition comprising advocates of Europe and nationalists, liberals and illiberals, and supporters of diversity and proponents of Christian identity.” This shows that the EU lacks a Europe-wide party system capable of fostering a genuine transnational space for political debate and dialogue, allowing citizens to understand, influence, and participate in a decisionmaking process, that affects their common interests, which unfortunately revolve around pro- and anti-EU positions.
The absence of an authentic pan-European party system has an impact on the electoral and partisan competition, which remain largely national. And it also works against forming a pan-European public opinion, because Europeans are exposed exclusively to domestic accounts of EU policies. These accounts can be partial, misinformed, and misleading, because national politicians tend to pass the buck and scapegoat the EU for their failures. Unsurprisingly, turnout for European Parliament elections is typically low, and citizens’ perceptions of the EU are largely misaligned with reality. This gives rise to criticism of the EU’s institutional “democratic deficit”.
The European project needs to be re-invented, and “a strong voice for Europe and openness should emerge.” Although Macron and Merkel have been seen as the French-German motor, Macron faces “obstacles” at home, preoccupied with “domestic reforms and the strengthening of a political base at home.” The German election in September 2017 left Merkel weakened after losing a majority. Macron has lost Italy as an ally and can no longer rely on Merkel to deliver, following “tensions within her coalition and retreat on the European front.”
The author believes, “the chances seem high that the May 2019 election will end in a series of obscure, highly tactical fights,” that divides rather than unites. This would be “bad for democracy because citizens deserve to be offered clear options on central issues; and it would further undermine the European Union’s legitimacy just when the EU needs to redefine itself.” Both mainstream and new parties will need to seek alliances, and all the fronts will be pushed to do so on the basis of a dichotomy pitting pro- and anti-EU elements against each other. There is no shortage of shadenfreude among EU-critics and opponents in Moscow and Washington.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
david belay Aug 31, 2018

Please stop this nonsense. How is Macron supporting migration? by not allowing ships to dock in Corsica? By letting his cops cut the soles off the shoes of migrants' children and confiscate their phones (source: Guardian)? By having his majority in parliament pass the worst immigration law in decades, one that could have been written by the Front National?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Edoardo Cattaneo Aug 31, 2018

That's, again, not completely true. It's true that they are both "agonising over Brexit", but there are equally important issues over which they battle (one above all, austerity).
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Edoardo Cattaneo Aug 31, 2018

The Movement 5 Star may have been found to pursue a series of left wing policies, but it has changed a lot since then. It is instead, now a rather centrist party (especially when it comes to civil rights) which is radical only in its incompetence
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Bernhard Kopp Aug 30, 2018

We should carefully look how candidates for MEPs are nominated and elected in all EU-27 countries, and whom they actually represent. We should look what parliamentary representation, legitimacy and accountability mean, and how this is met by the so-called EU-parliament.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Jose Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio Aug 30, 2018

In Chapter 11 of his book "Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World," Eamonn Kelly had the figure "Three Scenarios for the Coming Decade," in 2005, that shows two questions. The first and high systemic leverage question says: "Is the source of leadership and innovation primarily BOTTOM-UP?

So far all countries of the world have answered NO, to continue a global leadership vacuum that as I say in a moment is “Wasting the crisis.” As can be easily seen, saying YES to BOTTOM-UP is what my comments are all about here in this Project Syndicate website, to propose the need for “Grasping the opportunities.” For example, in the article "Europe for Itself," of Jul 30, 2018, I replied to the Jul 24, 2018, comment of WILLIAM WALLACE, saying among other things that:

Like all national leaders all over the world, Macron is "Wasting the crisis." In order to start "Grasping the opportunities," we need global leaders. That's what I said on the dated May 2017 image "#GlobalDebout under Macron - four insights from this tweet conversation" that I shared in Twitter. Instead of “Grasping the opportunities,” for a European-lead global order, the assumptions of the EU new strategy of Mark Leonard’s “Europe for Itself” also correspond to “Wasting the crisis.”
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
M M Aug 30, 2018

As I repeatedly said it, democracy has been hijacked by the very few and is being held to ransom. One only needs to look at the exhorbitant budgets that politicians and certain public and influential figures are enjoying (spending) on their security apparatus and on continuous PR / Media campaigns to boosts their dismal image and to try and hide their tracks. The people of Europe are very much aware of the situation, therefore and as long as democracy shall continue to be denied to the people at large, through tactical manoeuvring, convenient (to the politicians) regulations, and other shady practices and propagandas, the population in the EU can only move more to the right and we all remember only too well the aftermath of such events back in the 30's! Regrettably, humanity never learns, and one can only hope is that "history does not repeat itself" but there again, this could very well be "wishful thinking".
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/Cl9k2d6it

L’Europa potrebbe perdere l’opportunità di un riallineamento politico

Subscribe to PS Digital

New Comment

Contact us

Log in/Register

L’Europa potrebbe perdere l’opportunità di un riallineamento politico

Subscribe to PS Digital

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification