Euro bills.

欧元区的明斯基困局

发自布鲁塞尔——挥之不去的低通胀一直困扰着欧洲央行。但它对此的应对手段——本质上只是更多的量化宽松——可能只会适得其反,不但加剧了失衡状况,还将导致严重的金融动荡。

目前欧元区的整体消费物价指数一直徘徊在0附近,而核心通胀率甚至仍然低于1% ——距离欧洲央行2%左右的目标依然太远。虽然这些数字都可归因于今年早些时候的新一轮全球大宗商品价格下跌,但却无法解释较长期的通胀预期的疲软问题——即便在今年三月欧洲央行启动了每月600亿欧元(约合663亿美元)的大规模债券购买计划后出现了些许改善。

但欧洲央行并未因此重新思考其战略,而是开始考虑双倍下注:购买更多债券,并进一步将其基准利率降为负值,而这将酿成大错。

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