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冷眼旁观的欧洲

慕尼黑——冷战结束后稳定世界的自由国际秩序正在承压。俄国的复仇、中东的混乱和南海的紧张局势都是系统开始出现问题的症状。

不稳定的驱动因素有很多。包括经济实力从西方向东方转移、正规机构的削弱以及西方民主国家不满情绪越来越严重。但最重要的首推侵蚀自由国际秩序的两大关键进展:即美国放弃全球领导责任和欧洲危机长期化。

但近来有迹象显示美国开始重新表现高调。经过六年的“幕后领导”和划定毫无意义的红线,美国总统奥巴马已经开始寻求创新、灵活的外交军事安排——以便在应对全球威胁的斗争中发挥作用。

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