Tim Brinton

Ora tocca all’Europa imparare la lezione

PRINCETON – Le crisi offrono l’occasione per imparare qualcosa. Negli ultimi 200 anni, ad eccezione della Grande Depressione, le principali crisi finanziarie sono scoppiate in paesi poveri e instabili, che hanno poi avuto bisogno di importanti aggiustamenti strutturali. La crisi attuale è scaturita nei paesi industriali ricchi, non solo negli Stati Uniti a causa dei mutui subprime, ma anche in Europa, per la cattiva gestione delle banche e del debito pubblico. Allora quali lezioni può trarre l’Europa, e quale peso avranno tali lezioni per il resto del mondo?

Gli attuali problemi dell’Europa offrono notevoli parallelismi con i problemi scoppiati in passato nella periferia dell’economia mondiale. Nelle ondate consecutive di crisi – in America Latina negli anni 80 e nell’Asia orientale dopo il 1997 – i paesi hanno acquisito un migliore metodo di politica economica e hanno sviluppato una struttura più sostenibile per la gestione del debito pubblico. Oggi tocca all’Europa.

La crisi europea sta tornando al punto di partenza. Iniziata come crisi finanziaria, si è trasformata ora in una classica crisi di debito pubblico dopo l’intervento dei governi volto a garantire i debiti bancari. A sua volta, tale crisi ha creato una nuova ondata di timori verso le banche, che sono sovraesposte al debito governativo, presumibilmente sicuro. Il debito sovrano non sembra più stabile.

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