Les courtes vacances de l'Europe

NEW YORK - Depuis novembre dernier, la Banque Centrale Européenne, sous son nouveau président Mario Draghi, a réduit ses taux directeurs et a entrepris deux injections de plus de 1 trillion d’euros de liquidité dans le système bancaire de la zone euro. Ceci a conduit à une réduction provisoire des contraintes financières qui pesait sur les pays mis en danger par dette sur la périphérie de la zone euro (Grèce, Espagne, Portugal, Italie, et Irlande). Cela a brusquement réduit le risque d'une panique des liquidités dans le système bancaire de la zone euro et a réduit les coûts de financement insoutenables de l'automne dernier de l'Italie et de l'Espagne.

En même temps, une cessation de paiement technique par la Grèce a été évitée et le pays a mis en application une restructuration réussie - bien que coercitive - de sa dette publique. Un nouveau contrat fiscal - et des nouveaux gouvernements en Grèce, en Italie, et en Espagne - ont stimulé un espoir d'engagement crédible dans l'austérité et la réforme structurelle. En outre, la décision de combiner le nouveau fonds de renflouement de la zone euro (le Mécanisme européen de stabilité) avec l'ancien (le Fonds européen de stabilité financière) a augmenté de manière significative la taille du pare-feu de la zone euro.

Mais la lune de miel avec les marchés qui en découlait a finalement tourné court. Les différentiels de taux d'intérêt pour l'Italie et l'Espagne augmentent encore, alors que les frais d'emprunt pour le Portugal et la Grèce sont restés élevés pendant toute cette période. Et inévitablement, la récession sur la périphérie de la zone euro est s'accentuée et se déplace vers le noyau, à savoir la France et l'Allemagne. En effet, la récession empirera tout au long de cette année, pour de nombreuses raisons.

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