欧洲的短暂假期

纽约—自去年11月以来,欧洲央行在其新行长德拉吉的领导下降低了政策利率,并分两次向欧元区银行系统注入了超过1万亿欧元的流动性。这暂时减缓了欧元区外围债务困扰国(希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利和爱尔兰)的财政负担,减轻了欧元区银行系统爆发流动性枯竭的危险,也降低了意大利和西班牙去年秋天以来不可持续的融资成本。

与此同时,希腊避免了技术违约,并实施了成功的(也可以说是强迫的)公债重组。新的财政契约——以及希腊、意大利和西班牙新政府——燃起了人们对可信紧缩和结构性改革承诺的期望。将欧元区新旧援助计划(欧洲稳定性机制和欧洲金融稳定基金)合并极大地扩大了欧元区防火墙规模。

但由此带来的市场蜜月很快就过去了。意大利和西班牙的利差再次开始抬头,葡萄牙和希腊的借贷成本则一直居高不下。与此同时,欧元区外围的衰退不可避免地正在深化并向核心区(即法国和德国)蔓延。事实上,衰退将在今年恶化,原因如下。

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