Европейский вопрос о России

БРЮССЕЛЬ – Друг или враг, или что-то тревожно среднее? Вот вопрос, который задает Европа о России, а Россия – о вновь агрессивной Европе. Выбор президентом Владимиром Путиным Дмитрия Медведева, председателя Газпрома, газовой компании, которая держит мертвой хваткой европейское энергоснабжение, только придает этому вопросу еще большую решительность.

Отношения между Европой и Россией ухудшались в течение нескольких лет, но те проблемы, которые когда-то считались управляемыми экономическими вопросами, в том числе энергия, теперь усугубляются гораздо более изменчивыми политическими различиями. Риск заключается в создании климата нескрываемой враждебности с потенциально большими издержками, чем во время накала Холодной войны.

Самая очевидная и неизбежная точка воспламенения – это Косово. Скорее всего в начале следующего года большинство стран-членов Европейского Союза признает анклав с албанским большинством на южной границе Сербии независимым государством. Это наверняка взбудоражит не только Сербию, но и Кремль.

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