Europas Führungsstärke

CAMBRIDGE – Auf dem diesjährigen Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos war Asiens wachsende Macht das große Gesprächsthema. Ein asiatischer Analyst behauptete, dass es im Jahr 2050 drei Weltmächte geben werde: die Vereinigten Staaten, China und Indien. Europa erwähnte er nicht, doch ist es ein Fehler, Europas Macht zu unterschätzen.

Ja, Europa tritt zurzeit unter seiner Gewichtsklasse an. In einer Welt der harten Macht ist es zersplittert, friedlich und normativ, doch geht es in der Welt nicht ausschließlich um militärische Macht. Der Einsatz von Gewalt unter fortschrittlichen, demokratischen Industrienationen ist praktisch undenkbar. In ihren Beziehungen untereinander , kommen diese Länder alle von der Venus, um mit Robert Kagan zu sprechen, und hier ist Europas Betonung von Gesetzen und Institutionen ein Vorteil.

Was andere Teile der Welt angeht, wurde in einer neueren Pew-Umfrage festgestellt, dass viele Europäer es gerne sähen, wenn Europa eine größere Rolle spielen würde, doch um einen Ausgleich zur amerikanischen Militärmacht zu schaffen, wäre eine Verdoppelung oder Verdreifachung der Verteidigungsausgaben notwendig, und wenige Europäer sind an einer derartigen Erhöhung interessiert. Trotzdem erfordert eine intelligente Strategie für Europa größere Investitionen in die „Hard Power“ (harte Macht).

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