Evropa a její síla vést

CAMBRIDGE – Na letošním Světovém ekonomickém fóru v Davosu se vše točilo kolem rostoucí síly Asie. Jeden asijský analytik tvrdil, že v roce 2050 budou existovat tři světové velmoci: Spojené státy, Čína a Indie. Evropu nezmínil, avšak podceňování síly Evropy je chybou.

Ano, Evropa v současné době funguje pod své možnosti. Je rozdrobená, mírumilovná a normotvorná ve světě tvrdé síly, ovšem část světa nelze vojenskou silou definovat. Použití síly mezi rozvinutými průmyslovými demokraciemi je prakticky nemyslitelné. Ve svých vzájemných vztazích jsou tyto země vesměs z Venuše, abychom parafrázovali Roberta Kagana, a v tomto ohledu je evropský důraz na právo a instituce plusem.

Pokud jde o jiné části světa, zjistil nedávný průzkum Pewova institutu, že mnozí Evropané by byli rádi, kdyby Evropa hrála významnější roli, avšak vyvážení americké vojenské síly by vyžadovalo zdvojnásobení nebo ztrojnásobení výdajů na obranu a o takové zvýšení má zájem jen málokterý Evropan. Chytrá strategie pro Evropu bude nicméně vyžadovat větší investice do tvrdé síly.

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