欧洲的领导实力

    剑桥--在今年的达沃斯世界经济论坛上,众人热议的话题是亚洲不断增长的实力。一位亚洲问题分析家指出,到2050年,世界将会有三大强权,也就是美国、中国和印度。他没有提到欧洲,但是低估欧洲的实力是一个错误。

    是的,欧洲目前确实是虎落平川。它现在各自为政,和平无事,并且在一个硬性实力的世界里确定标准,但是,世界还有一部分并非完全由军事实力左右。在先进工业化民主国家中使用武力几乎是难以想见的。借用罗伯特卡根的话来说,在彼此关系中,这些国家都来自金星,所以在这里欧洲集中于法律和机制是有利之处。

    对于世界其他地方而言,最近的一项皮尤调查显示,许多欧洲人想要让欧洲发挥更大的作用,但是,平衡美国的军事实力将会要求军费翻两番或者三番,而欧洲人很少对于这样的增加军费感兴趣。但是,欧洲的灵巧战略要求在硬性实力上更大的投资。

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