Paul Lachine

Европейский кредитно-денежный «санитарный кордон»

ВАШИНГТОН, округ Колумбия. Министр финансов Германии Вольфганг Шойбле любит критиковать правительства других стран, в том числе США, за их «непродуманную» политику. По иронии судьбы, именно «безответственные» высказывания немецкого правительства привели Европу на грань нового долгового кризиса.

Немцы, отвечая на понятную отрицательную реакцию народа на финансируемую за счет налогоплательщиков помощь банкам и странам с большой задолженностью, благоразумно призывают к введению механизмов, разрешающих «расширение совместной ответственности» ‑ что означает убытки для кредиторов. Фактически, их новые предложения, которые ошибочно предполагают, что дефолт может наступить только после середины 2013 года, игнорируют основы экономики дефолтов по задолженности.

Немцы должны вспомнить последний эпизод широко распространенного государственного кризиса – Латинская Америка, 1970-е годы. Этот опыт показывает, что в стране наступает дефолт, если его издержки ниже, чем выгода. Недавние заявления Германии явно подтолкнули ключевые европейские страны ближе к этой точке.

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