Paul Lachine

Le Cordon Sanitaire monétaire de l’Europe

WASHINGTON – Le ministre allemand des finances Wolfgang Schäuble critique à l’envi les autres gouvernements, y compris celui des Etats-Unis, pour leurs politiques « irresponsables ». Ironiquement, ce sont pourtant les propos inconséquents du gouvernement allemand qui ont amené l’Europe au bord d’une nouvelle crise de la dette.

Les Allemands, en réponse à la compréhensible véhémence de la réaction de l’opinion publique face au renflouage des banques et des pays endettés financé par les contribuables, en appellent à juste raison à des mécanismes qui permettraient de « mieux répartir le fardeau » - ce qui impliquerait des pertes pour les créanciers. Pourtant, leurs nouvelles propositions, qui bizarrement impliquent que les défauts ne peuvent advenir qu’après mi-2013, défient les principes économiques de base des défauts de dettes.

Les Allemands devraient pourtant se rappeler le dernier épisode de défaut souverain généralisé, en Amérique Latine dans les années 70. Cette expérience a montré que les pays font défaut lorsque les coûts sont inférieurs bénéfices. Les récentes déclarations allemandes ont poussé certains des principaux pays européens très proches de ce point.

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