Los gorrones de Europa

En Estados Unidos, los estados que tienen políticas fiscales inadecuadas se enfrentan a un castigo. Sus bonos se venden con un descuento en relación con los de los estados mejor administrados. El servicio más elevado de la deuda que tienen que pagar funciona --en cierto grado-- como una forma de disciplina contra la tentación de gastar ahora y pagar después.

Por supuesto, la disciplina del mercado no es perfecta: el mercado de bonos en gran medida no "ve" pasivos futuros implícitos (como los pagos prometidos por pensiones). Sin embargo, esta disciplina fiscal forzada, junto con los propios procedimientos presupuestales internos de cada estado, ha evitado que se dé una crisis fiscal a gran escala a nivel estatal en los EU desde la Gran Depresión.

Veamos ahora el caso de Europa. Antes de la adopción del euro hubo muchas crisis fiscales en los Estados nación del sur del continente, que produjeron oleadas de inflación alta. Pero con el establecimiento de la moneda única se cerró el camino para la solución de las crisis financieras mediante la inflación, puesto que ahora el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) vigila la política monetaria.

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