La soluzione del 4% per l’Europa

WASHINGTON – Questa è un’estate estremamente importante per l’Europa. Nonostante i passi rilevanti verso un’unione bancaria e una ricapitalizzazione diretta delle banche spagnole compiuti nell’incontro di giugno dei leader dell’eurozona, sia l’eurozona che l’Unione europea rischiano infatti il disfacimento. Non solo l’implementazione delle riforme proposte è in ritardo, ma ci potrebbero inoltre essere delle contrarietà da parte della Germania rispetto al Meccanismo di Stabilità europeo. Inoltre, sembra che sia i Paesi Bassi che la Finlandia stiano rivedendo le proprie posizioni su alcune parti dell’accordo.

Anche nel peggior scenario possibile, una qualche forma di cooperazione intra-europea continuerà sicuramente ad esistere. Ma è difficile immaginare come l’UE che conosciamo oggi possa superare una disintegrazione anche solo parziale dell’eurozona.

Chi sostiene che uno o più paesi della periferia dell’eurozona dovrebbe prendersi una “vacanza” dall’euro, sottovaluta le ripercussioni sia economiche che politiche di un simile passo. Il senso di fallimento, la perdita di fiducia e il danno inflitto su così tanti paesi, qualora anche solo uno o due di essi dovessero abbandonare l’euro, avrebbero un enorme impatto su tutta l’Unione.

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