Paul Lachine

En route vers l’euro-obligation

SANTIAGO - Il se peut que le jour de l’euro-obligation soit proche. Ce qui ressemblait il y a quelque temps à un remède de charlatan pour résoudre la crise financière européenne semble aujourd’hui la seule solution viable pour sauver l’euro. Le rachat de leurs obligations par la Banque Centrale Européenne n’a pas évité à la Grèce, ni à l’Irlande, ni au Portugal d’avoir besoin d’un plan de sauvetage. Il ne sauvera pas non plus l’Espagne ni l’Italie.

Seulement, l’Espagne et L’Italie sont trop imposants pour pouvoir être renfloués. Le nouveau Fonds Européen de Stabilité Financière (EFSF) n’est pas de taille. Et l’élargissement de l’EFSF vers une taille plus appropriée exigerait une quantité considérable d’emprunts français, ce qui pourrait bien placer la France elle-même en position de proie aux attaques spéculatives.

C’est ici que les euro-obligations entrent en jeu. Les cinq États en difficulté vont devoir placer des dizaines de milliards d’euros en nouvelle dette et refinancer des sommes encore plus importantes d’ancienne dette. Les marchés ont cessé depuis bien longtemps d’acheter des obligations délivrées par la Grèce, l’Irlande et le Portugal, et pourrait bientôt cesser d’acheter à l’Italie et à L’Espagne - ou alors à des taux d’intérêts prohibitifs. En revanche, les marchés seraient ravis de se gaver d’obligations garanties par la bonne foi et la crédibilité de la zone euro.

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