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Keeping the Balkan Ghosts at Bay

Mar 21, 2017 Carl Bildt

European leaders, having suddenly awoken to new realities in the Balkans, are calling for increased engagement in the region to maintain stability and push back against Russian influence. But it is now clear that the only way forward for the EU is to accelerate the remaining Balkan countries' integration into the bloc.

VISBY, SWEDEN – European Union leaders have suddenly awoken to new realities in the Balkans. At a recent summit, they emphasized the need for increased EU engagement to maintain stability – and to push back against Russian influence – in the region.

But the Balkan countries’ geopolitical situation should not come as a surprise. After all, post-Ottoman fractures – stretching from Bihać in Bosnia’s northwestern corner to Basra on Iraq’s Persian Gulf coast – have repeatedly been a source of regional and global instability since the demise of the old empires a century ago.

When the Habsburg and Ottoman empires collapsed at the end of World War I, attempts were made to establish modern nation-states in the Balkans, despite the region’s national and cultural diversity. Since then, nationalism has repeatedly clashed with the region’s enduring mosaic of civil life, fueling one conflict after another.

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Carl Bildt

Writing for PS since 2009
84 Commentaries

Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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Henk Crop Mar 25, 2017

When I was in Serajewo, two years ago, I noticed how isolated and self-centered the place was.
Beautiful city but few people spoke english, you could not buy an english newspaper, no express ways to the outside world, mistrust between religious groups.
Perhaps they could be helped with some advice on government and economic development.
- Milos Vulanovic Mar 26, 2017
  
  As someone who grew up in Yugoslavia, my take is that foreign envoys like Bildt completely did not care of people in Yugoslavia and their future. They had their short term agendas and acted upon them. Nothing else and nothing different from today
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jagjeet sinha Mar 22, 2017

THE RIGHT KIND OF EUROPEAN DESTINY
The European Destiny that Carl Bildt dreams of adds to the greater good that Europe is capable of, alongside The Anglosphere.
The Association of Smaller European Nations - should have Carl Bildt as its President - can work brilliantly with The Anglosphere.
ASEAN IN ASIA is the template for such an ASEAN IN EUROPE - that poses no existential threats, seeking Superpower Status.
In fact, such an European Community becomes an Asset in containing external threats that Russia and China together pose.
APEC is another platform - where Russia and China are members - that also has USA inside as a full member.

The European Destiny that France + Germany desire is an existential threat that challenges The Anglosphere.
That European Destiny is based on 1814 + 1914 and seeks Superpower world domination - replacing Britain and America.
That European Destiny is a greater threat than Russia + China - because the "barbarians are inside the Gate" secured by NATO.
That European Destiny was put down in 1814 and 1914 - at immeasurable costs, and must never be permitted again and again.

Security in Europe that flourished in 1814 & 1914 - threatens Peace n Prosperity of Seven Decades.
Security and Economics are two sides of the same coin.
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j. von Hettlingen Mar 22, 2017

Carl Bildt says the spectre of the Balkan wars has come back to haunt him while he was there last year. He says EU leaders would be well-advised to deal with this powder peg, "or wait for it to deal with them." Even Germany raised its concern in November 2014 about tensions in the region. Bildt - as EU’s Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, then Co-chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and, finally, the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Balkans - reminds Europe of the 2003 EU summit in Thessaloniki, when "delegates solemnly vowed to bring all of the Balkan countries into the bloc as members." He says the EU has been kicking the can down the road since the "immediate problems" there "had subdued." While assuming "they had secured peace for the region," they returned to the "business-as-usual" mode.
The author also criticises Jean-Claude Juncker's adherence to the "status quo" after he assumed office in 2014, "by declaring that the EU would undergo no further expansion during his five-year term." As the EU has other crises on its mind, Russia has exploited the vacuum and sought to project power across a region it sees as within its sphere of influence. The author says Juncker's stance is "politically disastrous," because with no hope for EU-membership in sight, "reform and integration efforts now extinguished, and nationalism in the region predictably started to rise again." It is once more embroiled in a crisis: Borders are being questioned, ethnic tensions are bubbling up, and land swaps are being mooted as a last resort to prevent a slide back towards violence.
The former Yugoslavia disappeared from the map of Europe after 83 years of existence. Its breakup led to a series of ethnically-based wars and insurgencies between 1991 and 2001, with the 1995 Srebrenica massacre being the worst atrocity since World War II. Jingoism had once again replaced communism as the dominant force. A federation of six republics emerged. Their borders were drawn along ethnic and historical lines: Bosnia-Hercegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. Serbia also had two autonomous provinces: Kosovo and Vojvodina.
Slovenia and Croatia were the first to break away, and they are the only EU members in the Balkans. In Kosovo, Serbia, Bosnia and Montenegro, ethnic tensions are on the rise. The wars of the 1990’s that pitted Muslims against Orthodox Christians may not return, as "the conditions today are very different from what they were then." Yet, firebrands and "individual hotheads can ignite fires that are difficult to contain."
The author says "the only way forward" is to resolve the conflicts, "while also accelerating European integration." EU leaders need to show their "will and means to act, by deploying EU Battle Groups to conduct military exercises in the region," and to show that their "military forces are not paper tigers." Unfortunately there is no appetite for "further EU enlargement," and it will take time to accept new members. In order to motivate them to continue their reforms and qualify for membership, the bloc should "replicate the EU Eastern Partnership, with the creation of a Balkan Partnership, while always keeping membership on the table. At the same time, the EU needs to step up its political engagement in the region." The author ought to know that despite rising nationalism, there is little appetite for conflict among ordinary people there. Many still hope for a future in Europe, assuming if they are member states of the EU, it would keep hawkish "ghosts at bay."
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Steve Hurst Mar 21, 2017

'Further EU enlargement is also imperative.'...
'For Europe, the only way forward is to assert its powers of containment, while also accelerating European integration.'

For geopolitical objectives not economic ones. You never learn do you. Now why should a geopolitical plan fail. Ever heard of the Great Game?

'The EU, in today’s parlance, has a bandwidth problem'. No it has a tuning problem, it is not tuned into the right wavelength so it is not listening, simply broadcasting propaganda and imagines upping the bandwidth ie broadcasting more is the answer. This is strangely reminiscent ...
- Jan Czaja Mar 23, 2017
  
  Steve,
  Germany is busy building its new empire, one based on economic might this time around, so you're right, they're not listening. France is their Robin and now they're talking of speeding up the integration of the core countries. As Jagjeet above noted, the dreams of Louis XIV, Napoleon, and Kaiser are still alive and well. I presumed English already figured it out hence the Brexit.
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Diana Hinova Mar 21, 2017

Is 'Balkans' used as synonymous with former Yugoslavia? Of the geographic Balkans, Bulgaria and Greece have also joined.
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Bernhard Kopp Mar 21, 2017

Tito died in 1980. Then, for a decade, Yugoslavia was very much left by themselves although it was common knowledge since the 1960s that Yugoslavia was only held together by Tito's special brand of dictatorship and that there would be a problem as soon as this ends. Then, even in the 1990s, Europe, in all its political wisdom, including Mitterand's visit to Sarajevo, needed the US-leadership to deal with the civil war that erupted after the Serbs had gone too far. When we analyse the Balkans / Yugoslavia, we might as well start in 1980 and include all the European foolishness up to 2007.
- Alisdair Hamilton-Wilkes Mar 21, 2017
  
  Yugoslavia was largely held together by the threat that if it started falling apart or destabalised the Soviets would intervene as they had done in Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968). Once that external pressure subsided it stopped holding the country together.
  
  Things got badly out of hand when Helmut Kohl decided to unilaterally recognise Croatia, which turned the break up from an internal stand off with some civil strife into a full blown war of succession.
  
  I certainly agree that the whole attempted peace effort made Europe look diffident and impotent.
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