Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Pavel Ko

Потерянная связь между акциями и облигациями

КЭМБРИДЖ – Как следует понимать разрыв между новыми максимумами достигнутыми глобальными фондовыми индексами и новыми минимумами реальных процентных ставок по всему миру? Несколько конкурирующих объяснений пытаются примирить эти тенденции, но для того, что заняться калибровкой денежной и фискальной политики соответствующим образом, нужно быть полностью уверенными в наших ответах.

Самые популярные объяснения преуменьшают факторы риска опасным образом, таким которое может ввести в заблуждение. Например, теория «векового застоя» утверждает, что низкие процентные ставки составляют всю истинную историю ситуации. Мировая экономика страдает от хронического дефицита спроса, который может быть устранен посредством устойчивого роста государственных расходов.

Согласно этой точке зрения, растущие фондовые рынки отражают лишь низкое дисконтирование будущих доходов. Кроме того, кажется, что доля прибыли в трудовом секторе заметно снизилась в последние десятилетия в восьми крупнейших экономиках мира, за исключением Соединенного Королевства. С другой стороны, доля прибыли в капитале росла, что, конечно, повышает стоимость акций (хотя, цены на акции продолжают расти в таких странах, как США и Великобритания, где трудовые доли начали проходить циклический подъем, и где повышение процентных ставок в ближайшее время может быть на горизонте).

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