India flood  house submerged Prabhat Kumar Verma/ZumaPress

La gran burbuja de los mercados emergentes

LONDRES – Algo ha ido muy mal en las economías emergentes que se suponía iban a dar forma al futuro del mundo, e incluso dominarlo. Ya se está buscando culpables: entre otros, los precios de los productos básicos, el fracking, los tipos de interés de EE.UU., El Niño y China. La respuesta es más sencilla y tradicional: es la política.

Pongamos de ejemplo a Brasil, donde una economía que parecía dirigirse a un auge perpetuo apenas ha crecido en más de dos años y  hoy está en contracción. Poco ha ayudado el que los precios de los productos básicos que exporta estén a la baja, pero se suponía que su economía era mucho más que cosechas e industrias extractivas.

O miremos a Indonesia. La economía todavía crece, pero a un ritmo (un 4,7% anual en el último trimestre) decepcionante tanto en términos de las expectativas previas como del aumento de la población. Lo mismo se puede decir de Turquía, donde el crecimiento ha bajado al 2,3% en el último trimestre, lo que al menos supera el aumento demográfico pero es escaso en comparación con los años de vacas gordas del país (2010 y 2011), cuando creció en un 9%. O Sudáfrica, donde el progreso económico ha sido demasiado lento, independientemente de los años de altos o bajos del oro y otros recursos, para lograr alguna mella en los niveles de pobreza.

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