exchanging currency Then Chih Wey/ZumaPress

La debacle de las monedas de los mercados emergentes

SANTIAGO – Con el nivel récord al que ha llegado la reciente depreciación de las monedas de Malasia, Indonesia, Sudáfrica, Turquía, Brasil, Colombia, Chile y México, los operadores cambiarios alrededor del mundo preguntan: ¿cuánto más pueden debilitarse las monedas de los mercados emergentes?

Un método muy usado para contestar esta pregunta es tomar como base un año relativamente normal y medir cuánto se ha depreciado la moneda de un país desde entonces. Esa cifra luego se ajusta por la diferencial entre la tasa de inflación de ese país y la de sus socios comerciales. Si la tasa de cambio real resultante no difiere demasiado de la del año base, se concluye que el mercado está en equilibrio, y que ya no debería anticiparse una depreciación adicional.

Otro método, también muy utilizado, es el siguiente. Tomemos el déficit de cuenta corriente del mismo país y preguntemos cuál es la depreciación real que se necesita para cerrar esa brecha externa (incluyendo ciertos supuestos sobre la elasticidad del comercio en el cálculo). Si la depreciación real reciente alcanza el tamaño requerido, no deberían esperarse nuevas variaciones en el tipo de cambio.

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