exchanging currency Then Chih Wey/ZumaPress

الأسواق الناشئة ومحنة العملة

سانتياجو ــ مع بلوغ عملات ماليزيا وإندونيسيا وجنوب أفريقيا وتركيا والبرازيل وكولومبيا وشيلي والمكسيك مستويات غير مسبوقة من الانخفاض مؤخرا، يتساءل تجار العملة في مختلف أنحاء العالم: إلى أي مدى قد يستمر ضعف عملات الأسواق الناشئة؟

النهج النمطي في الإجابة على هذا السؤال يتطلب سنة أساس مرجعية طبيعية نسبياً ويقيس إلى أي مدى انخفضت قيمة عملة دولة ما منذ ذلك الوقت. ثم يتم ضبط ذلك الرقم وفقاً لفارق التضخم بين هذه الدولة وشركائها التجاريين. وإذا كان سعر الصرف الحقيقي الناتج عن ذلك غير بعيد بشكل كبير عن سنة الأساس المرجعية، فيقال إن السوق في توازن، وينبغي لنا أن نتوقع قليلاً من الانخفاض أو لا انخفاض على الإطلاق.

ولنتأمل الآن طريقة بديلة. خذ عجز الحساب الجاري لدى أي دولة واسأل عن مدى الخفض الحقيقي اللازم (مع الاستعانة ببعض الافتراضات بشأن مرونة التجارة في هذه العملية) لإغلاق هذه الفجوة الخارجية. إذا كان الخفض الحقيقي الأخير يحقق هذه العتبة، فلا ينبغي لك أن تتوقع المزيد من التغير في سعر الصرف.

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