bright future Alex Abian/Flickr

El futuro de los mercados emergentes

BERKELEY – El año pasado, el ambiente económico global cambió notable e inesperadamente. Bajaron los precios de la energía y los productos básicos. El crecimiento en China (que representa cerca del 40% del crecimiento mundial) cayó a su menor tasa desde 1996, a pesar de que su mercado de valores alcanzó cotas insosteniblemente altas. Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea elevaron sus sanciones económicas a Rusia en respuesta a sus incursiones militares en Ucrania, lo que pone de relieve los riesgos geopolíticos de invertir en el extranjero. Y ha habido grandes oscilaciones en los tipos de cambio, debido a modificaciones reales o esperadas (en el caso de la Reserva Federal) en las políticas monetarias.

Estos veloces cambios han dejado perplejos a los mercados globales y asustado a los inversionistas, reduciendo su apetito por el riesgo, y esa cautela se ha visto reflejada en los mercados emergentes. Los inversionistas se han sentado al margen, lo que se refleja en el estancamiento del índice MSCI, que sigue la rentabilidad de los valores de los mercados emergentes.

A lo largo del segundo semestre del año pasado, las 15 mayores economías emergentes sufrieron las mayores salidas de flujos de capitales desde la crisis financiera mundial de 2008. Además, las reservas totales en divisas extranjeras de los países emergentes bajaron por primera vez desde 1994, cuando comenzara el ascenso y acumulación que han caracterizado a la economía global en las últimas dos décadas.

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