Buildings reflected in water

La menace de la submersion du marché

WASHINGTON, DC – Il est temps de mettre la montée des économies émergentes en perspective. La croissance économique rapide dans la plupart des pays en développement depuis le début du siècle a été alimentée par un boom des matières premières et une surabondance de crédit. Mais, parce que le boom des marchés émergents n'a pas été accompagné par des réformes structurelles suffisantes, il n'a pas été durable.

Aujourd'hui, la plupart des grandes économies émergentes ont connu un retournement sévère de fortune. La Russie et le Brésil ont plongé dans des crises graves, avec inflation à deux chiffres accompagnant une contraction de 4% du PIB l'an dernier. L’Afrique du Sud croit à peine. Le rythme phénoménal de la croissance chinoise a ralenti à moins de 7%. Sans surprise, Goldman Sachs a fermé son fonds BRIC d’investissement au Brésil, en Russie, en Inde et en Chine qui ne faisait que perdre de l'argent.

En effet, l'avenir des BRICS (y compris l'Afrique du Sud) – ainsi que celui des autres marchés émergents – semble sombre. En dehors de l'Asie, la plupart des économies en développement sont principalement exportatrices de matières premières, et sont donc très exposées aux chocs de prix. La chute des prix du pétrole a réduit la valeur du rouble russe de plus de moitié par rapport au dollar américain, et de nouvelles baisses semblent probables – surtout si la Réserve fédérale américaine continue à relever ses taux d'intérêt.

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