Демографическая проблема стран с развивающейся экономикой

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ – Старение население часто упоминается в качестве серьезной экономической проблемы для развитых стран. Однако новый доклад Глобального института McKinsey (MGI) показывает, что изменения в демографии представляют еще большую угрозу для перспектив роста многих развивающихся стран.

В течение последних 50 лет ежегодный прирост мирового населения на 1,6% в год вызвал резкое увеличение трудоспособного населения и быстрый рост ВВП во многих развивающихся экономиках. В Китае и Южной Африке занятость удвоилась, а в Бразилии, Индии, Индонезии, Мексике и Нигерии она, по меньшей мере, утроилась. В Саудовской Аравии занятость увеличилась почти в девять раз.

Однако, с замедлением темпов роста населения, согласно прогнозам, среднегодовой рост занятости в странах с развивающейся экономикой снизится с 1,9% до 0,4%. В абсолютном выражении это снижение превысит показатели для развитых стран, где прогнозируют снижение роста среднегодовой занятости с 0,9% до 0,1% в ближайшие годы. Согласно ожиданиям, в большинстве стран занятость достигнет своего пика в течение следующей половины столетия; в Китае за этот период рабочая сила может сократиться на 20%.

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