La renaissance égyptienne

LE CAIRE– Si l'on en croit les indicateurs macroéconomiques, depuis 3 ans l'économie égyptienne stagne. Le flux d'investissements directs étrangers est asséché et le taux de croissance du PIB a dégringolé de 7% par an en 2008 et 2009 à seulement 2% en 2013.

Mais faut-il s'en tenir à cela ? Pas tout à fait. Même s'il ne faut jamais prendre le PIB pour un reflet complet de l'économie d'un pays, en Egypte les statistiques traduisent effectivement l'écroulement de toute la capacité productive du pays dans les années qui ont suivi la chute du régime de Moubarak en 2011. Les grandes agences de notation qui considéraient auparavant l'Egypte comme l'un des pays émergents les plus prometteurs de la région ont abaissé drastiquement sa notation en matière de crédit, ce qui a fait peur aux investisseurs étrangers. Par ailleurs, la révolution anti-Moubarak a provoqué une fuite massive des capitaux, diminuant de moitié les réserves en devises du pays.

D'autres facteurs interviennent. Depuis 2011 sept gouvernements se sont succédés, et les désordres sociaux ont mis les dirigeants sur la défensive, ce qui a bloqué toute velléité de réforme. Avec un taux de chômage de l'ordre de 30 à 40%, le pouvoir est confronté à une population de plus en plus aigrie qui se sent laissée pour compte. Parallèlement, le capitalisme de copinage alimente les inégalités de revenus, freine le développement rural et érode le systéme éducatif.

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