Se reducen los horizontes de política de China

BEIJING – En el último trimestre de 2011, cuando disminuyó más rápidamente el aumento de la inversión china, las inquietudes por un fuerte descenso económico se intensificaron, en particular debido al rechazo de las autoridades a emprender nuevas políticas expansivas. Sin embargo, para mayo de 2012, el gobierno había cambiado de parecer por lo que la Comisión Nacional de Desarrollo y Reforma aprobó 7 millones de yuanes (1.3 billones de dólares) en nuevos proyectos. Eso, aunado a los dos recortes subsiguientes de las tasas de interés que realizó el Banco Popular de China (BPC), garantizó el fin de la desaceleración económica en el tercer trimestre de 2012.

Así pues, el desempeño de la economía china ha mantenido el patrón cíclico familiar de las dos últimas décadas: un rápido crecimiento de la inversión, respaldado por políticas expansivas, ha impulsado la tasa de crecimiento económico. A eso sigue la inflación, y en consecuencia las políticas se endurecen y el crecimiento se desacelera. Sin embargo, la inflación sigue elevada o en aumento, por lo tanto, hay más endurecimiento. Finalmente la inflación disminuye, pero el crecimiento se desacelera más de lo deseado debido a la sobrecapacidad que resulta de la inversión excesiva en las primeras fases del ciclo. En esta etapa, las políticas vuelven a ser expansivas y el ciclo comienza nuevamente: dirigida por un aumento de la inversión, la economía repunta.

Así pues, la aceleración del crecimiento económico desde el tercer trimestre de 2012 no debería sorprender. Mientras el gobierno seguía teniendo margen de maniobra para ejercer políticas monetarias o fiscales expansivas, la reactivación económica era solo una cuestión de tiempo.

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