不断缩窄的中国政策回旋余地

发自北京——回顾2011年最后一个季度,当时中国的投资增长加速下滑,加上官方不愿实施新经济扩张政策,使人们对经济硬着陆的担忧不断加剧。然而从2012年5月开始政府转变了思维,国家发展改革委员会批准上马了总额达7万亿元人民币(折合1.3万亿美元)的新项目,再结合中国人民银行的连接两次降息,保证了经济放缓态势在2012年第三季度实现了扭转。

中国经济的表现因此保持了过去二十年来极为常见的循环模式:由经济扩张政策支撑的快速投资增长抬高了经济增长率。由此引发了通货膨胀,于是政策紧缩,导致经济增长放缓。但通货膨胀率依然居高不下,甚至仍在上涨,所以需要强制实施更多的紧缩政策。最终通货膨胀降了下来,但经济增长的减速程度超过了预期,这是经济周期早期的过度投资导致的产能过剩所引起的。此时政策又变成了扩张性的,而周期又重新开始了:在投资增长的牵引之下,经济再度实现反弹。

由此可见,2012第三季度以来的经济增长加速应属意料之内。只要政府依然有使用扩张性货币和/或财政政策的空间,经济复苏就只不过是个时间问题。

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