الآفاق السياسية المتزايدة الضيق في  الصين

بكين ــ في الربع الأخير من عام 2011، عندما تسارع الانحدار في نمو الاستثمار في الصين، ازدادت حدة المخاوف بشأن هبوط اقتصادي حاد، وخاصة في ضوء إحجام السلطات عن تبني سياسات توسعية جديدة. ولكن بحلول مايو/أيار 2012 كانت الحكومة قد غيرت رأيها، حيث وافقت اللجنة الوطنية للتنمية والإصلاح على مشاريع جديدة بقيمة 7 تريليون يوان (1,3 تريليون دولار أميركي). وهذا إلى جانب خفض أسعار الفائدة مرتين متتاليتين بعد ذلك من جانب بنك الشعب الصيني، كان بمثابة الضمان لإنهاء التباطؤ الاقتصادي في الربع الثالث من عام 2012.

وبالتالي، حافظ أداء الاقتصاد الصيني على النمط الدوري المألوف طيلة العقدين الماضيين: حيث يعمل النمو السريع للاستثمار، المدعوم بسياسة توسعية، على دفع معدل النمو الاقتصادي إلى الارتفاع. ثم يأتي التضخم في أعقاب ذلك، فتتقيد السياسة ويتباطأ النمو. ولكن التضخم يظل مرتفعاً أو في ارتفاع، فتفرض السلطات المزيد من إحكام السياسات. وأخيراً ينخفض معدل التضخم، ولكن النمو يكون أبطأ من المستوى المرغوب، نظراً للقدرة الفائضة الناجمة عن الاستثمار المفرط في المرحلة المبكرة من الدورة. وعند هذه النقطة، تصبح السياسة توسعية مرة أخرى، وتبدأ الدورة من جديد: وبدعم من نمو الاستثمار، ينتعش الاقتصاد.

وبالتالي فإن تسارع النمو الاقتصاد منذ الربع الثالث من عام 2012 لم يكن مفاجئا. فلأن الحكومة كانت لا تزال تتمتع بحيز المناورة اللازم لإدارة سياسة نقدية و/أو مالية توسعية، فإن تحقق الانتعاش الاقتصادي كان مسألة وقت لا أكثر.

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