Hospodářská realita vrací úder

Téměř každý den se dovídáme o dalších nenasytných ředitelích a manažerech amerických firem, kteří se svými účetními, právníky a investičními bankéři zosnovali plán, jak ošidit investující veřejnost. Nejde ale jen o skandály. Veřejnost by o nevyzpytatelnosti dnešních finančních trhů měla vědět mnohem více. Směnné kurzy a ceny akcií se dnes výrazně odchylují od svých dlouhodobých základních hodnot, což pro reálnou ekonomiku může znamenat zhroucení zaměstnanosti, produkce i investic. Přitom finanční analytikové, kteří o těchto trendech přednášejí v televizi, je nedokáží posoudit realisticky.

Podívejme se na americký dolar, jehož hodnota vůči euru v posledních dnech prudce poklesla. Od poloviny devadesátých let až donedávna dolar vůči evropským měnám výrazně posiloval. Když se v lednu 1999 objevilo na scéně euro, obchodovalo se za 1,17 USD. Pak plynule ztrácelo až na hodnotu 0,83 USD, aby se v posledních dnech vyšplhalo zpět, téměř na paritní úroveň s dolarem.

Pro ekonomy-teoretiky není nedávný vzestup eura žádným překvapením. Směnné kurzy mají tendenci výrazně se odchylovat od dlouhodobých průměrných hodnot. Nebývalá síla dolaru v posledních letech musela nutně jednou skončit návratem k průměrné hodnotě. Tento návrat probíhá právě teď.

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