乱套的宏观

伊萨卡—直到几年前,各种流派的经济学家还异口同声信心满满地宣布大萧条永远不会再次发生。从某种程度上说,他们是对的。2008年金融危机爆发后,我们迎来的是大衰退。政府成功地通过向全球经济注入巨量货币、将利率大幅削减至零限制住了伤害。但是,在遏制了2008—2009年的崩溃后,他们的知识和政治弹药库也用尽了。

经济顾问们向他们的老板保证,复苏将很快发生。也确实出现了一些复苏;但2010年就陷入了停滞。与此同时,政府出现了巨额赤字——这是经济衰退的后遗症——这应该由复苏的增长来消化。在欧元区,希腊等国家因为银行援助把私人债务转变为公共债务,而面临着主权债务危机。

注意力转向了财政赤字问题以及赤字与经济增长的关系问题。政府应该有意扩大赤字以抵消家庭和投资需求的下降吗?还是他们应该试图削减公共支出以解放私人支出资金?

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