Crescita Parziale

MILANO – In un momento di fiacca crescita economica, i paesi di tutto il mondo stanno cercando di elaborare e mettere in atto strategie per fornire stimoli e sostegni alla ripresa. La parola chiave è strategia: per avere successo, i responsabili politici dovrebbero garantire che le misure volte ad aprire l’economia, rilanciare gli investimenti pubblici, migliorare la stabilità economica, e ad incrementare la fiducia nei mercati e gli incentivi per l’assegnazione delle risorse, siano attuate tramite pacchetti abbastanza completi. Perseguire solo alcuni di questi obiettivi produrrebbe risultati nettamente inferiori.

La Cina fornisce un esempio eloquente. Prima che, nel 1978, Deng Xiaoping varasse la politica di “riforme e aperture”, il paese presentava un livello relativamente alto di investimenti pubblici. Ma l’economia pianificata dal centro era sprovvista di incentivi economici e rimaneva in gran parte chiusa ai principali mercati dell’economia globale di beni, investimenti e tecnologia. Di conseguenza, il rendimento degli investimenti pubblici risultava modesto, e la performance economica della Cina mediocre.

La trasformazione economica cinese ha avuto inizio con l’introduzione, negli anni ottanta, di incentivi economici nel settore agricolo. Queste riforme sono state seguite da una graduale apertura all’economia globale, un processo che ha avuto un’accelerazione nei primi anni novanta. Poco dopo l’attuazione delle riforme, la crescita economica è avanzata sensibilmente, e sono aumentati i rendimenti dell’investimento pubblico, raggiungendo un tasso di crescita annuo superiore al 9% del PIL.

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