“半个面包”增长

Jan 20, 2015 Michael Spence

米兰—在经济增长萎靡的时期，全球各国都在尝试构思和实施刺激和维持复苏的战略。这里的关键词是战略：要想成功，决策者必须保证这些措施能开放经济、提振公共投资、加强宏观经济稳定、增加市场恢复力、资源配置激励以合理且完整的方案实施。只追求其中几个目标所产生的结果会大大下降。

中国就是一个绝佳的例子。1978年邓小平启动“改革开放”政策之前，中国公共部门投资相对较高。但中央计划经济缺少市场激励，也基本对全球经济的主要商品、投资和技术市场封闭。结果，公共投资回报十分平庸，中国经济表现也十分低下。

中国的经济转型起始于20世纪80年代在农业部门中引入市场激励。随后是逐渐向全球经济开放的过程，这一过程在20世纪90年代有所加速。经济增长大踏步向前，公共投资回报也大幅上升，改革是时候不久年GDP增长率就达到了9%以上。

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Michael Spence

Writing for PS since 2008
136 Commentaries

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and co-chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

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Bakhodur Eshonov Jan 23, 2015

Back in 50th-60th last century most of developing countries were facing similar problems.Developing world these days is much more diverse. It's a majot challenge now for developing agencies (IFIs, UNDP and etc.), which also evolved back in 50th last century, not to suggest universal prescriptions, but to understand 'the dynamics of development', to accept that development is as a process.
https://undp.unteamworks.org/node/459177
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Bakhodur Eshonov Jan 23, 2015

Indeed, more holistic rather then segmented approach, accomodating key spill-over effects engaging both economic, social, spatial, technological and instituational transformation.
https://undp.unteamworks.org/ru/node/465307
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PierPaolo Cassese Jan 22, 2015

Sir Spence,
Your note concerning the growth is pretty encouraging for the contribution that supplies to the European reformism.
Unfortunately, unlike as it is theorized by the European policy makers few years ago, little improvements have been effectively implemented within the European Community. (Hereafter EU).

In the recent years, Germany has overwhelmingly abused of its bargaining power in imposing the belief of the Austerity throughout Europe and to the European Citizens. A suitable example is the awkward behavior assumed by the German politics in managing the Maastricht treaty which has been partially blamed of locking the stimulus for the growth.

Being an investment strategist, that one I have always wondered, concerns the unsolvable problem of the fiscal convergence never issued in the European Monetary Union. My very simplified thought is justified enough by the so called “fiscal arbitrage” among the Countries that either belong to the EMU or to the CEE. (i.e Luxembourg is a fair example of, as well as Ireland with its green zone, but on top of the list, the hit remains the case of Italian Swiss dispute on the disclosure of the owners of the bank accounts held by the Swiss banks which remains an open issue).

From an unified point of view, I would like to ask you a personal judgment about the resolution of the export issue which is affecting the European Union since Germany is not abiding by the Macroeconomic imbalance procedure for the last 3 years.

Don’t you believe that such a bad German attitude will seriously damage the commercial balance-sheet of the remaining European players who have lost the opportunity to boost their economy by exploiting the export momentum?

Bringing ahead the discussion, another interesting point raised in your article is referred to the market incentive for the public investments to be underpinned to grant to the Europe to get rid of the recessive spiral. Well, both Europe and Italy have allocated plenty of public spending for the public investments such as Lion-Torino (TAV project, as well as the Mestre bridge or, to close the loop, the project developed close to the Rhine river.).
In fulfilling these tasks, an important financial aid is provided by the European Investment Bank (BEI), whose investment plans have allowed the BEI itself to sign a remarkable project with the Italian Government to finance the project dubbed “Passante di Mestre” allegedly 350 Mln of €.

From my historical experience, albeit such projects are useful for sustaining the national growth, for the time being have not promoted any hoped effect. My skepticism is due to the delays and to the bureaucracy to be respected for getting the needed licenses to start building the projects themselves.

I would end up my post with a common advice to be delivered to the European politicians and that regards the effort to be undertaken in streamlining the bureaucracy to speed up and achieve the so hoped sustainable growth. Without any anti-corruption policy the progresses done by the European Parliament will be converted into a burden for Europe rather than an opportunity.
On top of that, nowadays the economic development is put in place by looking at the energy efficiency, by paying attention to the preservation of the global ecosystem, which means to put in place strategic investments needed for mitigate the climate changes that are undermining the Earth.
Maybe it’s time to orient the economic growth topics toward both the new structural and sustainable development targets such as the work flexibility and the climate change prevention.
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Procyon Mukherjee Jan 21, 2015

Michael Spence describes so well the concept of 'half a loaf growth', one which would be meaningful for income mobility; private investments have failed to achieve this denouement given its complete lack of focus on the human side of the problem, namely building the human capital.
Half a loaf growth should focus on creating engineers, doctors, teachers, people engaged in public works, or simple mass of trained people who can make things, who have been replaced now by 'smart's.
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