Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Senior Adviser to General Atlantic, and Chairman of the firm’s Global Growth Institute. He is Chair of the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute and serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy. He is a former chair of the Commission on Growth and Development and the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World (Macmillan Publishers, 2012).
米兰—在经济增长萎靡的时期,全球各国都在尝试构思和实施刺激和维持复苏的战略。这里的关键词是战略:要想成功,决策者必须保证这些措施能开放经济、提振公共投资、加强宏观经济稳定、增加市场恢复力、资源配置激励以合理且完整的方案实施。只追求其中几个目标所产生的结果会大大下降。
中国就是一个绝佳的例子。1978年邓小平启动“改革开放”政策之前,中国公共部门投资相对较高。但中央计划经济缺少市场激励,也基本对全球经济的主要商品、投资和技术市场封闭。结果,公共投资回报十分平庸,中国经济表现也十分低下。
中国的经济转型起始于20世纪80年代在农业部门中引入市场激励。随后是逐渐向全球经济开放的过程,这一过程在20世纪90年代有所加速。经济增长大踏步向前,公共投资回报也大幅上升,改革是时候不久年GDP增长率就达到了9%以上。
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