Il nuovo realismo macroeconomico della Bce

NEW YORK – La Banca centrale europea ha finalmente lanciato una politica di “quantitative easing” (QE), ossia di “allentamento monetario”. La domanda chiave in questa fase è se la Germania darà alla Bce la libertà di manovra necessaria per effettuare questa espansione monetaria con sufficiente audacia.

Sebbene il QE non possa produrre una crescita a lungo termine, può fare molto per mettere fine alla recessione attuale che coinvolge l’Eurozona dal 2008. I livelli azionari ai massimi record in Europa questa settimana, in previsione del QE, non solo indicano una crescente fiducia, ma sono anche un canale diretto con cui l’allentamento monetario può incentivare investimenti e consumi.

Ma alcuni osservatori, come il premio Nobel Paul Krugman e l’ex segretario americano al Tesoro Larry Summers, continuano ad avere dubbi sul fatto che il QE possa realmente essere efficace. Come ha recentemente dichiarato Krugman, un “vortice deflazionistico” sta trascinando gran parte dell’economia mondiale, con i prezzi in calo che causano un’inevitabile spirale al ribasso della domanda. La Banca mondiale e il Fondo monetario internazionale sembrano essere concordi, dal momento che entrambi hanno recentemente rivisto al ribasso le previsioni di crescita di alcuni punti.

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