Euro statue Adam Berry | getty images

Zvlčilý přístup ECB

TILBURG – Evropská centrální banka to udělala zase. Na posledním zasedání ve Frankfurtu se Rada guvernérů ECB rozhodla dál navýšit nákupy dluhopisů z 60 na 80 miliard eur měsíčně, přičemž předmětem nákupu nyní mohou být i firemní dluhopisy. Také depozitní sazba se opět snížila a momentálně činí -0,4%. Tyto kroky mají k neutrální politice daleko – a ECB jimi výrazně překračuje svůj mandát udržovat měnovou stabilitu.

Motivace v pozadí posledních kroků je zřejmá: prezident ECB Mario Draghi je odhodlaný potlačit deflaci, která představuje vážnou hrozbu pro hospodářský růst. V deflačním prostředí se koneckonců obtížněji splácí dluh, takže firmy mají sklon odkládat investice. Nedávné údaje Eurostatu, podle nichž se roční index spotřebitelských cen snížil minulý měsíc o 0,2%, obavy jen zesilují.

Ačkoliv je však současný stav technicky vzato deflací – tedy trvalým poklesem cenové hladiny, který se může odrazit na zaměstnanosti či jiných smluvních vztazích –, nejde o deflaci strukturální. Do značné míry je to spíše důsledek nízkých cen ropy, které od června 2014 klesly o více než 70%. Pomineme-li ceny energií a potravin, nachází se eurozóna ve stavu mírné strukturální inflace. A ta by v kombinaci s cenou ropy měla ekonomice prospívat, jelikož podporuje spotřebu a investice.

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