Soldiers in WWI Boston Public Library

El regreso de los sonámbulos

PARÍS - El 28 de junio del año 1914, el archiduque Francisco Fernando, heredero al trono austro-húngaro, y su esposa Sofía, duquesa de Hohenberg, fueron asesinados en Sarajevo – desencadenando una serie de malas decisiones que culminaron en la Primera Guerra Mundial. Un siglo más tarde, el mundo se encuentra una vez más agitado por el conflicto y la incertidumbre, esto se ejemplifica a través de lo que ocurre en el Oriente Medio, Ucrania, y en los mares Oriental y Meridional de China. ¿Puede una comprensión de los errores cometidos en 1914 ayudar a que el mundo evite otra catástrofe?

Sin duda, el orden mundial ha cambiado dramáticamente en los últimos cien años. Sin embargo, la creciente sensación de que hemos perdido el control de la historia, junto con las serias dudas que se ciernen con relación a las capacidades y principios de nuestros líderes, brindan cierta relevancia a los acontecimientos ocurridos en Sarajevo en el año 1914.

Hace apenas un año, cualquier comparación entre el verano de 1914 y la actualidad habría parecido artificial. El único paralelo que podría haberse hecho se limitaba al Asia: los expertos se preguntaban si China se estaba convirtiendo de manera gradual en el equivalente moderno de Alemania durante los tiempos del Kaiser Guillermo II; además, las tensiones regionales que se acumulaban con respecto a los reclamos territoriales de China se asemejaban, en cierta medida, a la situación en los Balcanes en las vísperas de la Primera Guerra Mundial.

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