Dollars und Depression

Der fallende Dollar entwickelt sich weltweit zu einer Quelle profunder makroökonomischer Drangsal. Die Frage ist nun, wie schlimm diese Drangsal wird. Ist die Weltwirtschaft in Gefahr?

Es gibt zwei Möglichkeiten. Falls Sparer und Investoren weltweit von einer weiteren Abwertung des Dollars ausgehen, werden sie die Währung abstoßen, sofern man sie nicht angemessen dafür entschädigt, dass sie ihr Geld weiter in den USA und ihren Anlagewerten investieren – was impliziert, dass sich die Kluft zwischen den Zinsen in den USA und der übrigen Welt vertiefen würde. Infolgedessen würden die Kapitalkosten in den USA steil ansteigen, was von Investitionen abschrecken und den privaten Verbrauch verringern würde, da hohe Zinsen die wichtigsten Anlagewerte der privaten Haushalte belasten: ihre Häuser.

Die hieraus resultierende Rezession könnte den Pessimismus vertiefen und weitere Ausgabesenkungen schüren, was den Abschwung verstärken würde. Ein Amerika in der Rezession würde der Welt nicht länger als Importeur letzter Instanz zur Verfügung stehen – was auch die übrige Welt in die Rezession treiben könnte. Eine Welt, in der alle auf einen fallenden Dollar setzen, ist eine Welt in der Wirtschaftskrise.

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