Janet Yellen Bao Dandan/ZumaPress

Der Dollar tritt dem Währungskrieg bei

NEW YORK – In einer Welt der schwachen Inlandsnachfrage in vielen Industrie- und Entwicklungsländern können Politiker in die Versuchung geraten, Wirtschaftswachstum und Beschäftigung durch Exportwachstum ankurbeln zu wollen. Dazu brauchen sie eine schwache Währung und unkonventionelle geldpolitische Maßnahmen, um die erforderliche Abwertung herbei zu führen.

Seit Anfang des Jahres sind weltweit über 20 Zentralbanken dem Beispiel der Europäischen Zentralbank und der Bank von Japan gefolgt und haben ihre Geldpolitik gelockert. In der Eurozone waren die Randländer auf eine schwache Währung angewiesen, um ihre externen Defizite zu verringern und das Wachstum anzukurbeln. Auf der anderen Seite hat die Eurokrise, deren Ursache die quantitative Erleichterung war, dazu geführt, dass der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss, der letztes Jahr bereits bei 8% des BIP lag, weiter steigen konnte. Angesichts dessen, dass auch in anderen Kernstaaten der Eurozone die externen Überschüsse steigen, ist das allgemeine Ungleichgewicht innerhalb der Währungsunion groß und steigt weiter.

In Japan war die quantitative Lockerung der erste „Pfeil“ der „Abenomics“, des Reformprogramms von Premierminister Shinzo Abe. Dieses Programm führte zu einer deutlichen Abwertung des Yen und zu steigenden Handelsüberschüssen.

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