Janet Yellen Bao Dandan/ZumaPress

Le dollar entre en guerre monétaire

NEW YORK – Dans un contexte de faible demande intérieure, au sein de nombreuses économies avancées et sur les marchés émergents, les dirigeants politiques s’efforcent de dynamiser la croissance économique et l’emploi en privilégiant une croissance poussée par les exportations. Ceci exige une monnaie faible, ainsi que des politiques monétaires conventionnelles et non conventionnelles, afin de générer la dépréciation requise.

Depuis le début de l’année, plus de vingt banques centrales à travers le monde ont assoupli leur politique monétaire, suivant l’exemple de la Banque centrale européenne et de la Banque du Japon. Au sein de la zone euro, les États de la périphérie ont eu besoin d’une monnaie faible pour réduire leurs déficits extérieurs et amorcer la croissance. Or, cette faiblesse de l’euro, provoquée par l’assouplissement quantitatif, a boosté encore davantage l’excédent de balance courante de l’Allemagne, qui atteignait déjà un niveau impressionnant de 8 % du PIB l’an dernier. À l’heure où l’excédent extérieur augmente également dans d’autres pays du cœur de la zone euro, le déséquilibre global de l’union monétaire se révèle considérable et croissant.

Au Japon, l’assouplissement quantitatif constituait la première « flèche » des « Abenomics », programme de réformes du Premier ministre Shinzo Abe. Sa mise en œuvre a nettement affaibli le yen, et aboutit aujourd’hui à des excédents commerciaux en hausse.

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