Un plan B pour les banques centrales ?

SINGAPOUR – Un an que la crise financière mondiale bat son plein et il est extraordinaire de constater que plusieurs banques centrales sont toujours en proie à l’instabilité des secteurs financiers privés de leur pays. Jusqu'ici, la stratégie consistant à maintenir les systèmes bancaires en vie par des crédits de courte durée payés par les contribuables demeurait valable, mais les banques centrales devraient finalement y couper court si elles ne veulent pas se retrouver en soins intensifs quand leurs bilans crouleront sous les pertes.

On a de plus en plus de mal à croire que les grandes économies mondiales sont simplement confrontées à une panique de courte durée. Après une brève période de profits et de croissance considérables, l'industrie financière semble désormais face à une période de consolidation et d’élagage. Les banques faibles doivent pouvoir sombrer ou fusionner (avec des déposants ordinaires payés par les fonds d'assurance gouvernementaux) pour que les banques fortes puissent se revigorer.

S’il s'agit d'un bon diagnostic de la « crise financière », les efforts pour bloquer une dynamique saine et normale ne feront que prolonger et aggraver le problème. En empêchant la consolidation nécessaire, on affaiblit les marchés du crédit au lieu de les renforcer.

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