Il peso degli stress test

FIRENZE – Gli stress test, a cui sono state sottoposte le banche americane lo scorso anno, hanno ampiamente contribuito a ripristinare la stabilità finanziaria negli Stati Uniti e a rimuovere il timore che le maggiori istituzioni finanziarie potessero fallire. Gli europei sperano che la recente pubblicazione dei risultati degli stress test, condotti sulle loro banche, sortisca lo stesso effetto. Ma, mentre i risultati dei test potrebbero essere positivi per il settore finanziario, lo stesso potrebbe non valere per l’economia reale. La crisi finanziaria è finita, ma l’era del generale rallentamento economico è solo all’inizio.

Le crisi finanziarie hanno due tipi di effetti sull’economia reale. Nella fase acuta della crisi, c’è talmente tanto nervosismo e ansia che quasi nessuno riesce a contrarre un prestito. Man mano che le banche perdono fiducia l’un l’altra, il mercato interbancario si inaridisce. Solo le banche centrali – tipicamente prestatori di ultima istanza – si muovono in forte controtendenza.

Fu il collasso totale del credito commerciale a mandare in tilt per sei mesi il commercio globale dopo il fallimento di Lehman Brothers, avvenuto nel settembre del 2008. In momenti come questi, le crisi finanziarie sembrano attacchi di cuore – che provocano danni immediati e devastanti a tutto il corpo economico.

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