发展3.0

北京——在工业革命以前,世界各国人均收入相当。但是从那以后,随着一些西方工业化国家在政治和经济方面迅速统治世界,各国财富急速分化。近些年,即使是在爆发2008年金融危机之前,全球经济形势已发生了显著变化。直到2000年,七大工业国约占全球GDP的三分之二。今天,中国和一些大型发展中国家已经成为世界发展的领头人。

然而,尽管是在谈论亚洲的崛起,但是在过去几十年中只有少数的东亚经济体实现了从低收入到高收入的转变。此外,从1950年到2008年,世界上只有28个经济体能够以十个百分点或者更快的速度缩小与美国的人均收入差距,其中只有12个非西方经济体。与此同时,150多个国家被困在低收入或中等收入的状态中。缩小与高收入工业化国家的差距仍是世界发展面临的主要挑战。

二战后的后殖民时期,结构主义模式是主流的发展模式,目标是为了改变贫困国家的产业结构,使其与高收入国家的产业结构相似。通常,结构主义者会建议政府采取进口替代策略,通过公共部门的干预来克服“市场失灵”。称此为“发展经济学1.0”。采用这种方式的国家,获得了初始投资导向型的成功,紧随其后的是不断的危机和萧条。

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