Dean Rohrer

Les pays en développement et la crise mondiale

NEW YORK – Cette année sera sans doute la pire qu’aura connue l’économie mondiale depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale : la Banque mondiale prévoit un déclin atteignant 2 %. Même les pays en développement qui ont tout bien fait comme il faut – et dont les politiques macroéconomiques et régulatrices étaient bien meilleures que celles des Etats-Unis – en ressentent l’impact. Conséquence d’une chute abrupte de ses exportations, la croissance de la Chine va probablement continuer, mais à un rythme bien plus lent que les 11-12 % de croissance annuelle de ces dernières années. Si rien n’est fait, la crise va jeter rien moins que 200 millions de personnes de plus dans la pauvreté.

Cette crise mondiale demande une réponse mondiale, mais, hélas, la responsabilité de chaque réaction relève de la sphère nationale. Chaque pays essaiera de concevoir son propre plan de relance afin qu’il ait un impact maximum sur ses citoyens – et non un impact mondial. En évaluant la taille de leurs plans de relance, les pays vont équilibrer les coûts pour leurs propres budgets et les bénéfices en termes d’augmentation de la croissance et de l’emploi pour leurs propres économies. Etant donné qu’une partie des avantages (la plus grande partie pour les petites économies ouvertes) reviendra à d’autres, les plans de relance sont susceptibles d’être plus modestes et moins bien conçus, et c’est la raison pour laquelle un plan de relance coordonné au niveau mondial est nécessaire.

C’est l’un des importants messages transmis par une Commission d’experts des Nations unies sur la crise économique mondiale, que je préside et qui a récemment soumis son rapport préliminaire à l’Onu.

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