Pokusy o indický růst

Obavy Indie o regionální stabilitu zřejmě způsobí, že v nadcházejícím roce zvýsí výdaje na obranu.Vzhledem k tomu, že již v současnosti vynakládá Indie na obranu zhruba dvacet procent rozpočtu, objevuje se riziko, že schodek vládního rozpočtu dosáhne nezvladatelných výsin a ohrozí v posledním desetiletí těžce dosažený růst.

Výdaje Indie na obranu rychle stoupaly už před zahájením amerického a spojeneckého bombardování infrastruktury afghánských teroristů. V rozpočtovém roce končícím v březnu 2002 bylo resortu obrany vyhrazeno 731,4 miliard rupií (15,2 miliard amerických dolarů), tj. o dvanáct procent více než v předchozím rozpočtovém období. Když uvážíme již tak nafouknutý vládní deficit, ocitá se Indie před závažným rozhodováním, pokud si chce udržet pověst země směřující k hospodářské reformě.

Počátkem devadesátých let se Indie rozloučila se ztrouchnivělým plánovaným hospodářstvím zděděným po Nehrúovi a zahájila tržně orientovanou politiku. Tyto reformy nastartovaly vyssí růst, kdy průměrný HDP dosahoval v posledních desíti letech sesti procent, oproti průměrnému ročnímu čtyřprocentnímu růstu v předchozích desetiletích. Inflace zůstávala po celá devadesátá léta pod desíti procenty, a přes bujně rostoucí rozpočtový deficit se hospodářský růst stabilizoval.

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