Dean Rohrer

L’heure de vérité pour l’économie mondiale

MILAN – Durant les jours de canicule, Milan est plus calme que beaucoup d’autres villes européennes. Les locaux sont partis et, contrairement à Paris ou à Rome, les touristes ne prennent pas leur place. Ici comme ailleurs, les gens, les entreprises, les gouvernements et les marchés prennent une pause, décompressent et réfléchissent. Les problèmes économiques de l'Europe seront toujours là, à nous attendre, en septembre.

Ainsi, quand l'été sera fini, l'incertitude au sujet des questions clés sera à l'ordre du jour – et pas seulement en Europe. Des mouvements de protestation largement imprévus en Turquie et au Brésil ont remis en question la durabilité économique et sociale de la croissance des marchés émergents. Les incendies dans les usines de vêtements au Bangladesh ont soulevé de nouvelles questions concernant la gouvernance des chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales.

Aux États-Unis, la Réserve fédérale a laissé entendre qu’elle comptait mettre progressivement fin à sa politique d'assouplissement quantitatif à partir de la fin de l’année. En conséquence, on a assisté à une sorte de carry trade mondial basé sur les conditions monétaires dans les pays avancés, provoquant un resserrement du crédit et des turbulences de marché dans les économies émergentes. Il ne s’agit probablement que d’un simple aperçu de la complexité de sortie du modèle d’aide à la croissance qu’ont adopté les États-Unis, l’Europe et maintenant le Japon en réponse à la crise. Les perspectives sont de plus compliquées par l’impasse politique aux États-Unis à propos du plafond sur le budget et la dette, qui se confirmera probablement en septembre.

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