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إدارة الديون في عالَم شديد المديونية

ميلانو ــ تُرى ماذا حدث في ما يتصل بقضية تقليص الديون؟ في السنوات التي تلت الأزمة المالية العالمية عام 2008، كان التقشف وإصلاح الميزانيات العمومية من أهم شعارات الاقتصاد العالمي. ورغم هذا، تعمل الديون اليوم، أكثر من أي وقت مضى، على تأجيج المخاوف بشأن آفاق النمو في مختلف أنحاء العالم.

في دراسة لاتجاهات الديون بعد الأزمة يلاحظ معهد ماكينزي العالمي أن إجمالي الدين ازداد بنحو 60 تريليون دولار أميركي ــ أو 75% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العالمي ــ منذ عام 2008. فقد ازدادت ديون الصين على سبيل المثال بنحو أربعة أضعاف منذ عام 2007، وتبلغ نسبة الدين إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لديها نحو 282% ــ وهو مستوى أعلى من نظيره في العديد من الاقتصادات الرئيسية الأخرى، بما في ذلك الولايات المتحدة.

إن الاقتصاد العالمي الذي يستخدم الروافع المالية (الإنفاق بالاستدانة)، في حين يعجز عن توليد القدر الكافي من الطلب الكلي لتحقيق النمو المحتمل، يسلك مسارا محفوفا بالمخاطر. ولكن تقييم مدى الخطورة يتطلب وضع العديد من العوامل في الاعتبار.

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