超越通胀目标

爱丁堡—在过去三十年中,央行和学术界对于通胀目标是捍卫宏观经济稳定的关键这一思想越来越自信。但这一结论实际上根本不可能被证实,而2008年金融危机让很多人认为货币政策的目标不应该仅限于商品和服务的价格。那么,应该如何修改央行权限范围让它在关注低通胀的同时合理地使用货币政策解决其他问题?

通胀目标对宏观经济稳定的作用很难确定,原因很简单:你不可能知道如果央行追求相反的目标国家会怎么样。无法直接比较结果,研究者只好用各种策略来识别通胀目标的影响,通常的发现是影响很大(尽管在考虑国家的起点的情况下,其影响会变小甚至降为零)。

比如,对1997—2007年英国情况的研究显示出始于一个很低的起点的重大改进。英格兰银行在此期间采取了完全通胀目标并拥有政策独立性。专注于价格稳定伴随着相对较低的通胀(与过去或其他主要经济体相比)、强劲的增长和极小的产出波动。

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